当前增速放慢利多弊少

随着中国经济继续追赶美国，中国迫切希望树立一个负责任的、正在崛起的强国的形象。中国经济增速放缓将向外界展现出一个更为稳定、更可持续的商业环境，那些具备能力和意愿去适应中国雄心勃勃想要实现的新经济格局的外资企业将从中获得回报。

附件2：Hello 2014: China’s slower growth is cause for optimism

This year marked a significant shift in the mindset of China’s Communist Party. Oft-repeated promises to carve out a more sustainable development path finally translated into action as China’s new leadership abandoned breakneck growth pursued by its predecessors and moved to address the consequences of severe environmental degradation, unbalanced regional growth and social injustice.

The economy is predicted to have grown 7.5 per cent in 2013, the lowest rate of increase for more than a decade, and it promises to be much of the same in 2014. Many investors spoilt by double-digit Chinese growth that became commonplace even during one of the world’s most serious financial crises see the dip in growth as a weakness.

But rather than being a cause for alarm, it signals reasons for optimism. Tearaway growth threatened the country’s long-term stability and it simply could not continue forever. Besides, a 7.5 per cent growth rate is still by far the highest of the Brics economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Growth in Brazil and Russia actually entered negative territory in the third quarter of this year, while growth in India and South Africa tapered far more speedily than in China, despite the revival in fortunes of the US, the UK and several other industrialised economies.

The direction of China’s new economic policies became clearer following the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s 18th National Congress and there are many positives. The awkwardly named Resolution for Deepening Reforms in an All-round Way set in stone a commitment to loosening the governmental grip on market forces. Semantics in Chinese government edicts are always revealing. The resolution redefined the role of the free market as “determinant” as opposed to “basic”, a term used in all previous official policy documents.

The latest meeting of the Communist Party Central Committee, held in early December, resulted in the publication of its economic priorities in 2014. These included greater government transparency, a more balanced approach to regional development, rather than channelling growth into the prosperous eastern cities, and measures to prevent a debt crisis resulting from excessive ‘shadow’ lending by local authorities from non-bank financial institutions.

China’s leaders have pledged to speed up urbanisation, a process they regard as fundamental to upgrading its economy to one increasingly powered by domestic consumption instead of exports underpinned by low-cost manufacturing.

Its urbanisation strategy calls for measures to give ‘urban resident status’ to millions of migrant workers that have flocked to the cities from the countryside to work. And it calls for a stable financing system for urban development, better city planning and an emphasis on expanding the country’s second and third-tier cities rather than placing additional burdens on the likes of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which are already creaking under the weight of recent population growth.

The Chinese government is certainly making all the right noises about a more measured growth trajectory. But what does this all mean for foreign business and investment?

Traditional, high-polluting industries are facing severe restrictions just as the hi-tech sector continues to receive favourable tax breaks. Imported goods and services, as well as foreign capital inflows, will be guided towards pre-defined growth areas of hi-tech manufacturing, clean technology, pharmaceuticals, financial services, healthcare equipment, water-supply and waste-treatment technology, higher education and research & development across the board.

With power shifting from government to the markets, the private sector will benefit from preferential policies. Private companies, including foreign-invested enterprises, will be able to compete on a more level playing field in areas currently dominated by state-owned enterprises, especially resource extraction and banking. The government will encourage private and public sector joint ventures in the fields of infrastructure development, healthcare and education.

These new initiatives will open up more opportunities for foreign companies, which will need to adapt to the new business environment swiftly. Foreign capital will be channelled into areas where China has previously lacked international competitiveness and where China can improve its green credentials and reduce regional imbalances. Thus foreign companies are likely to reap the greatest rewards in China’s small and medium-sized cities, as well as in its agricultural and rural industries.

China is now one of the world’s largest overseas investors and its eagerness to spend abroad matches its obsessive assimilation of foreign technologies and capital. Wisely, the UK government has made no secret about its desire to tap into this resource, with George Osborne and Boris Johnson visiting China in October, and David Cameron leading a delegation of 131 British politicians and businesspeople in December.

Both Cameron and Osborne demonstrated their enthusiasm in linking up with influential Chinese entrepreneurs. Osborne made the long trip from Beijing to Shenzhen to have lunch with Ren Zhengfei, chairman of China’s largest private hi-tech company, which plans to pour ?13bn in investment into the UK over the next five years. Cameron travelled to Shanghai to meet Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Auto Corporation, which has bought the Coventry-based London Taxi Company (LTC), the maker of London’s black cabs, and the Swedish carmaker Volvo.

The Chinese government and people have welcomed Britain’s pragmatism. Bilateral trade, business engagement and investment will benefit both countries and enhance mutual understanding and appreciation of each other’s social and human values.

As the Chinese economy continues to make ground on the US, it desperately wishes to be perceived as a responsible rising power. The slowdown in its growth presents to the outside world a steadier and more sustainable business environment that will reward those foreign companies with the skill and willingness to adapt to China’s ambitious new economic landscape.